With the continued FED rate and subsequent mortgage rate increases, it’s logical that the real estate market demand has cooled. However, because of the supply constraints over the last three years, the waning demand has not significantly affected prices here in Atlanta. I view this as a positive for our real estate market in the medium term.
Likewise, mortgage rates have started to taper, and as the rates decrease, demand will pick back up in the new year, and we should see prices stabilize in 2023.
I think Atlanta is the best real estate market to be a buyer and a seller in for next year. We have strong momentum with the economy, jobs, and population growth to back it up. Lawrence Yun, the National Association of Realtors’ chief economist, named Atlanta the top real estate market to watch in 2023 and beyond; I certainly agree with him.
Below I outline the most recent data from a national and local market perspective.
National Market Analysis
Median home price
The national median home price in November was $370,700, up 3.5% from November 2021.
Days on the market
The national average for the number of days homes were on the market in November was 24, compared to 18 days in November 2021. Of the homes sold in November, 61% were on the market for less than one month.
Supply
The national supply for November is sitting at 3.3 months. These national supply challenges are expected to continue in the near term. Supply improved from November 2021, which recorded 2.1 months of supply.
Buyers
First-time buyers accounted for 28% of sales in November, up 26% from November 202. Investors and second-home buyers accounted for 14% of home sales in November, down from 15% in November 2021.
Region
In the southern region of the country, home sales are down 35% from a year ago. However, prices in the southern region have increased 4.4% year over year.
We now have a record 129 straight months of year-over-year price increases at the national level, the longest streak on record.
Atlanta Market Analysis
Median home price
The Atlanta median home sale price in November was $390,000, up 5.4% from the November 2021 median price of $370,000. The median sales price has fallen 9.8% from the peak in June of this year.
Days on the market
The Atlanta average for the number of days homes were on the market in November was 32, compared to 22 days n November 2021, a 45.5% increase.
Supply
The Atlanta supply for November is sitting at 2.2 months. The supply is up approximately 83% from November 2021. However, the increase is not as significant as the percentage suggests; the November 2021 supply was at a dismal 1.2 months. Recall that a healthy market has 4-6 months of supply. Atlanta’s supply is still well below the national average.
Home sales
Atlanta home sales in November are down 40% from November 2021.
Atlanta is still in a challenging supply and strong price position. Prices remain up over 45% when compared to November 2019, before the pandemic. Likewise, with Atlanta’s continued population and business growth, I believe the real estate market will continue its strength as rates cool.
Conclusion
In summary, the Atlanta real estate mark has cooled off in the near term due to the significant rise in mortgage rates. However, Atlanta is in a solid position to resume its real estate market growth in 2023 due to limited supply, population growth demand, and tapering mortgage rates.
Right now, there are some excellent opportunities for buyers who know where to look. That’s why working with an experienced agent like myself is crucial to ensure you get the best home for your needs.
If you are ready to sell your current home or find a new one, please do not hesitate to contact me.