Since my last quarterly update, mortgage rates have been decreasing. This decrease has caused home sales declines to level out and increase in some cases.
Looking forward to 2024, I remain optimistic about the Atlanta real estate market. I believe that we will continue to see a moderate decline in mortgage rates, perhaps settling around 6% in the back half of the year. This decline should propel demand forward, leveling out prices.
Likewise, as you will see in the numbers, Atlanta is still in a constrained supply environment, well below the national average. This should help keep us in a stable local market in the near term.
Below, I outline the most recent data from a national and local market perspective.
National Market Analysis
Median home price
The national median home price in November was $387,600, up 4% from November 2022. In November, all four U.S. regions saw an increase in median home prices.
Days on the market
The national average for the number of days homes were on the market in November was 25, compared to 24 days in November 2022. Of the homes sold in November, 62% were on the market for less than one month.
Supply
The national supply for November is sitting at 3.5 months. While we are still facing supply challenges, supply is improving as single-family new housing starts rose 18% in November, a one-and-a-half-year high. Supply is up 6% from November 2022, which sat at 3.3 months of supply.
Buyers
First-time buyers accounted for 31% of sales in November, up 28% from November 2022. Investors and second-home buyers accounted for 18% of home sales in November, up 14% from November 2022.
Region
In the country’s southern region, home sales are down 4.3% from a year ago. However, prices in the southern region have increased by 4.7% from October. The median home price in the southern region during November was $351,500.
As of December 21st, the 30-year fixed rate mortgage average is 6.67%, up from 6.31% a year ago.
Atlanta Market Analysis
Median home price
The Atlanta median home sale price in November was $412,000, up 5.6% from the November 2022. The median sales price continues to stay above the January 2023 low of $375,000.
Days on the market
The Atlanta average for the number of days homes were on the market in November was 30, compared to 32 days in November 2022. The average days homes are on the market is down 32% from the beginning of the year.
Supply
The Atlanta supply for November is sitting at 2.6 months. The supply is up 13% from November 2022. Recall that a healthy market has 4-6 months of supply, so Atlanta still has significant supply challenges, and it is well below the national average of 3.5 months.
Home sales
Atlanta home sales in November are down 7.5% from November 2022. But up 29% from the beginning of 2023.
Atlanta is still in a challenging supply and strong price position. The pricing trend remains positive, given the higher interest rate challenges. Atlanta’s real estate market continues to be resilient and outpace the national market. I anticipate this resiliency to continue with Atlanta’s projected population and business growth.
Conclusion
Home prices in Atlanta have been stabilizing throughout the year, inching back to the highs we saw in 2021. I anticipate that this market will continue to stabilize as we move into the new year. Due to the ongoing low inventory, I do not anticipate any significant fluctuations in the housing market in the near future.
As of now, there are many attractive buying opportunities available in select areas of the Atlanta market. It is important to act quickly on these opportunities, as they tend to disappear fast. To ensure that you find the best home for your needs, it is essential to work with an experienced realtor, such as myself.
If you are ready to buy or sell a home, please do not hesitate to contact me.