In my opinion, the most crucial piece of news since my last update was the Fed’s dovish tone following their Jackson Hole meeting. There is a high probability for a September rate cut, which should start providing relief on mortgage rates in the fall, assuming the 10-year yield responds favorably. Currently, a 30-year fixed sits around 6.5%. Banks are forecasting rates as low as 6% in the fall on the 30-year fixed.
With record inventories and falling rates, I expect that the fall will be more active than in the past several years, as there is significant pent-up demand.
Below is my update on the current residential real estate metrics nationally and locally, along with a summary of what Atlanta buyers and sellers can expect in the fall.
National Market Analysis [JULY]
Median home price: $422,400, up 15.7% from a year ago
Days on the market: 28 days, up from 24 days a year ago
Supply: 4.6 months, up from 4 months a year ago
Buyers & Region
First-time buyers account for 28% of national sales, and second-home buyers were responsible for 20% of sales.
Home sales in the country’s southern region are up 2.2% from the same period last year, and the median home price in May was $367,400.
Atlanta Market Analysis [JULY]
Median home price: $437,250, up 1% from a year ago
Days on the market: 41 days, up 36.7% from a year ago
Supply: 4.7 months, up 34% from a year ago
Sales: down 4.1% from a year ago
Atlanta market overview
As you can see from above, there is now a significant supply in the Atlanta metro market. This should keep prices subdued during the fall as buyers have many options. However, I expect to see some growth due to Atlanta’s strong job market and population influx.
Fall 2025 is likely to see continued balancing, with economic factors like business confidence and stability playing key roles. Overall, forecasts indicate flat to modest price changes, higher supply, and increasing sales activity.
For Buyers: This fall is expected to be favorable for buyers, with an abundance of inventory providing negotiating leverage, potential price dips, and more concessions from sellers (e.g., nearly two-thirds offering incentives).
There are many excellent homes for sale in some of the best neighborhoods right now. Below are three examples of homes that are perfect for first-time buyers:
For Sellers: Increased competition from rising inventory could potentially extend time on market and pressure prices downward. Therefore, it will be essential to work with a Realtor like me to optimize pricing and provide guidance on highlighting desirable features. However, there is still extremely strong demand in luxury condos located in desirable neighborhoods, with more motivated buyers entering as rates stabilize.
Conclusion
Atlanta remains one of the best markets in the country for real estate. Both buyers and sellers can expect activity to pick up this fall if mortgage rates begin to decline and prices stabilize. Overall, this fall will most likely be the optimal time to buy or sell your home this year.
If you’re ready to buy or sell a home this fall, don’t hesitate to contact me.